Making learning and work count Labour market LIVE from Learning and Work Institute 11 December 2018
Learning and Work Institute comment: |
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Chart 1: UK unemployment (ILO) The latest unemployment figure is 1,380,000. It has has fallen by 1,000 from the figure published last month. If it followed the later claimant count figures of Universal Credit and Jobseeker's Allowance, Learning and Work Institute estimates that unemployment may rise, although this remains highly uncertain. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%. |
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Chart 2: Percentage unemployed not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance The proportion of unemployed people not claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen to 31.3% (433,000). |
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Chart 3: Youth long-term unemployment (six months and over, 18-24) Youth long-term unemployment (which can include students) has risen by 6,000 from last month’s figure and is now 133,000. The youth long-term Jobseeker’s Allowance count (but not UC) remains far behind, at 19,700. The count fell by 200 this month. |
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Chart 4: Adult long-term unemployment (12 months and over, 25+) Adult long-term unemployment on the survey measure is now 278,000. The Jobseeker’s Allowance measure is 154,400. |
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Chart 5: Unemployment rates by age The 18 to 24 year old unemployment rate (including students) is 10.2% of the economically active – excluding one million economically inactive students from the calculation. The rate for those aged 25 to 49 is 3.2%. For those aged 50 and over it is 2.7%. The quarterly change is up 0.2 for 18 to 24 year olds, no change for 25 to 49 year olds, and up 0.1 for the over-50s. |
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Chart 6: Young people not in employment, full-time education or training The number of out of work young people who are not in full-time education (946,000) has fallen in the past quarter by 36,000 (3.7%). The fall was among the inactive, with the number of unemployed young people not in full-time education or training rising by 4,000. |
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Chart 7: Youth unemployment The number of unemployed young people has risen by 23,000 since last month’s figures, to 499,000. Meanwhile, the number of young Universal Credit or Jobseeker’s Allowance claimants rose last month by 4,585, to 189,617. There are 146,000 unemployed young people who are not in education, and do not claim Jobseeker’s Allowance, 44.8% of all unemployed young people who are not students. |
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Chart 8: Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count The ONS headline Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit claimant count increased by 21,900 in November, taking the total to 992,600. ONS' claimant count before seasonal adjustment increased by 15,000 to 964,500. This unadjusted change is directly comparable to the local level claimant count changes published today. L&W's seasonally adjusted estimate rose by 22,100 to 994,800. |
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Chart 9: Jobseeker’s Allowance – new claims and leavers The number of new Jobseeker’s Allowance claims fell by 7,000 this month, to 34,900. Meanwhile the number of leavers also fell, by 3,700, to 55,500. The rollout of Universal Credit affects these figures. Now, 63% of claims in the Claimant Count are Universal Credit. UC passed the total of JSA claims in June 2018. |
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Chart 10: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimant count leavers rate – leavers as percentage of ‘could leave’ Learning and Work Institute estimates that the ‘leavers rate’ – people who have left the claimant count as a proportion of those who could leave it – has fallen to 13.3% continuing several months of falls.. |
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Chart 11: Jobseeker’s Allowance – claimants staying through each three-month threshold (seasonally adjusted) These measures show a increase in benefit off-flow for claimants at most lengths of unemployment, but the proportion staying beyond three months has risen to 51.2%. |
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Chart 12: Jobseeker’s Allowance – proportion of starters in month becoming longer-term unemployed The proportion of starters becoming 12-month claimants is now 14.9%. This is likely to fall over the next few months as the proportion of starters becoming 9-month claimants has fallen by 1.2 percentage points over the last three months. These figures are based on those in Chart 11, but show the patterns of the same people passing through successive quarterly thresholds. |
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Chart 13: Vacancies – whole economy survey Vacancies (in the Office for National Statistics survey of the whole economy) were almost flat this month, at 848,000. As the number of vacancies is quite volatile, and frequently revised, the Office for National Statistics uses a three-month average. |
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Chart 14: Unemployed people per vacancy There are 1.6 unemployed people per vacancy. L&W estimates this figure may rise next month, if unemployment numbers follow the claimant count up. |
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Chart 15: UK employment Employment increased by 67,000 on the figure published last month, to 32,476,000. |
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Chart 16: Employment rate in the UK The employment rate has risen by 0.2 percentage points over the quarter, to 75.7%. |
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Chart 17: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – inactivity benefits The number of people inactive owing to long-term sickness fell, as did the benefit figure. This chart shows claimants of Employment and Support Allowance, and Universal Credit due to incapacity (the orange dots), compared with survey figures for the economically inactive owing to long-term sickness. |
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Chart 18: Claimants for inactive benefits and the economically inactive – lone parents The survey figures (showing those looking after family) rose while benefit measures fell slowly. Lone parents are increasingly claiming Universal Credit as Full Service rolls, out, but compatible figures to Income Support or JSA are not available. DWP has now ceased publishing statistics on lone parent JSA claimants. This chart shows claimants of Income Support as lone parents, plus lone parents claiming Jobseeker's Allowance (the orange dots) and survey figures for all those who are economically inactive looking after family (including couple families). |
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Chart 19: Employment rate quarterly change in regions – August to October 2018 This quarter, 7 regions showed a rise in the employment rate, led by the North West and the East Midlands. The employment rate fell in 5 regions, led by the West Midlands and Northern Ireland. |
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Chart 20: Unemployment rate quarterly change in regions – August to October 2018 6 regions showed an improvement in the unemployment rate this quarter. 6 showed a worsening. The rises were led by the North East and the West Midlands. |
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Chart 21: Inactivity rate quarterly change in regions – August to October 2018 Overall, there was a 0.2 percentage point fall in the inactivity rate. 6 regions showed rises in inactivity, led by Northern Ireland and the West Midlands. Northern Ireland's inactivity rate remains much higher than any other region, 7.5 percentage points above the UK and 4.2 points above the next region, the North East of England. |
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